Technical analysis BTC – What the market wants to do?
Financial markets are an extremely complicated issue, so you can’t listen to a guy who draws a few lines on a chart and tells you that it will go all the time again because the market has stopped at $ 30,000. This is how these markets do not work, and you have to take the whole capital market as a whole because the individual parts (stocks, commodities, crypto, bonds) constantly influence each other. This is the reason why it is important to follow technical analysis of BTC, if you would like to know what to expect.
And to put it right again, it is legitimate to talk about the market healing, and we will continue our uptrend. I’m skeptical about such a scenario, but I’ve already seen an analyst who had a pretty good argument to support the scenario.
We start with the technical analysis of BTC on the daily chart, where we still keep the steep decline conditioned by the drawn downtrend diagonal. Like steep increases, steep declines do not last long. And given the excellent response in the S / R band of $ 34,000 – $ 30,000, I am inclined to expect retracement in the active crypto market.
Specifically for BTC, the retracement logic is at least to the S / R level of $ 42,000, where we will see another retest. Plus, we need that retest to know how strong the bears are. We know that they have been solid in the last two weeks, but this can change dynamically over time. By that, I mean that the bulls have, of course, a chance to break through with another resistance retest.
But it should be remembered that there is also confluence at this level in the form of a niche on the Volume Profile and a Fibonacci level of 38.2%. And even if the breakthrough succeeds, my previous words still apply that it will probably be an ordinary bull trap. Until the price rises above $ 52,000, the market is simply a tough bear.
If I have to summarize the graph, I assume that Bitcoin will eventually break through the steep diagonal. On the one hand, I still do not expect a breakthrough of USD 30,000, and on the other hand, I calculate that BTC will remain in the range of USD 30,000 – 42,000 in the coming weeks.
As for the bottom, it is still the same at 22.59 points, where the current values are 31.09 points. So the daily RSI is still around the threshold. However, the imaginary spring is already quite compressed, so we should wait for the diagonal breakthrough. In return, the MACD shows that the negative momentum gradually weakens.
On the 4H chart, we can see in BTC technical analysis that volumes began to rise rapidly from about 39,000 and above. If you take a good look at the development of volumes, you know that something is still happening in the range of 39,000 – 30,000 USD. Even based on those volumes, I think that we have formed a local bottom, and now retracement will follow, which can take several days to a few weeks.
It depends on where the bears tick it. Anyway, we have a Pin Bar at the local level of 32,000 USD, which may have started the whole retracement. However, as has been said, we have to break through the mentioned downtrend diagonal, and then we will see.
At 4H RSI, it is clear that the market is trying to turn around. However, it is still not strong, as evidenced by the fact that the indicator has not yet exceeded 50 points at all. The MACD indicator is completely unusable at the moment, thanks to those clicks.
BTC Technical Analysis Conclusion
To sum it up, I can say for myself that we are in a bear market. However, I acknowledge that there is a chance for recovery. At least until it lasts $ 30,000, at the moment, I’m counting on retracement anyway, but Bitcoin must finally break through the steeply descending structure.